Pats-Colts - Going For it on 4th Down

Last Sunday night in the NFL game between the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts, the Patriots coach Bill Belichek made a decision to go for it on 4th and 2 deep in his own territory near the end of the game. The Patriots held a six point lead at the time. They did not make it, and the Colts ended up scoring and winning by one point. He was roundly criticized all week for the decision.

I generally think that coaches should go for it on 4th down more often than "conventional wisdom" says - so I decided to construct a game tree to analyze Bill Belichek's decision (using what I thought to be conservative estimates for my chance percentages.


The EMV analysis shows that it was indeed the right decision to go for it (again, using my percentages).

As it turns out, since the decision was so controversial, several articles have surfaced this week that have analyzed this subject. The last one is interesting b/c it actually mentions Bill Belichek as having read an article by a game theorist which influenced his decision making on 4th down.

The Count: Misconceptions About That Fourth-Down Call

Belichick 4th Down Follow-Up

Go for It on Fourth Down, Coach? Maybe You Should Ask an Egghead.